Feb 27, 2023
Brian Hartz
Jonathan Moore shares insights from AIA’s Voice of Architecture Economic Outlook
The latest annual survey conducted by the Tampa Bay chapter of the American Institute of Architects predicts modest growth for the region’s development-related economy in 2023 as inflation and supply chain challenges continue to encumber construction projects.
According to a news release, the AIA’s Voice of Architecture Economic Outlook found that 59% of local architects expect demand for architectural services in the Tampa Bay area to increase in 2023 — a decrease of 25 percentage points from last year’s predictions, when 84% of the architects foresaw increased demand.
A smaller percentage of the architects, 73%, think the Tampa Bay area’s development-related economy in 2023 will be “excellent” or “good,” a decrease of 15 percentage points from 2022’s figure of 88%. Likewise, 24% predicted the 2023 economy will be “fair,” an increase of 17 percentage points from the 2022 result, when only 7% forecast the economy would be “fair.”
“Certainly, the overall outlook is positive,” states Jonathan Moore of InVision Advisors, an architect who consults with architecture firms in the Tampa Bay area, in the release. “But even though the Tampa Bay area is faring better than many parts of the country, the survey shows we are not immune from the challenges facing the economy right now.”
The AIA survey, the release states, is often a reliable gauge of enthusiasm about real estate development because architects are hired early in the development process, with projects often being completed one to three years after the architecture firm begins work.
“There’s no doubt that inflation and supply chain challenges are impacting the viability of projects, which in turn means some projects will be reduced in scope or may be delayed,” states Trey Korhn of Valley Bank, which lends to developers, in the release. “We are considering these issues in as we work with borrowers on projects, knowing that costs continue to be a challenge.”
The survey also found that:
70% of respondents anticipate revenue growth for their firm in 2023, down from 77% in 2022, while only 11% expect robust growth of 15% or more in revenues, down from 33% in 2022.
53% say inflation has affected their business or organization.
81% say their projects have been affected by supply-chain issues.